Why is typhoon track different?
typhoon trackForecast principle, numerical pattern and forecast error interpretation.
Principles of Forecast
Modern typhoon trackForecast is mainly dependentWeather forecast model: Enter the atmospheric state into the supercomputer to advance future atmospheric evolution through fluid mechanics equations.
- European Centre for Medium-Term Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Recognised highest accuracy
- GFS (U.S. Global Forecast System) Updates High Frequency, Free Public
- China CMA-GFS, Japan GSM, UKMO 等
Why are country forecasts different?
- Modelling Differences: Different patterns of physical parameterization schemes, different resolutions.
- Initial DifferencesObservation data assimilation is different, starting point is slightly different, error with TimeZoom in.
- judging the airflow.Sub-tropical high pressure is strong and weak, and the subtlety of the W windshield Position can cause the path to be twisted.
How big is the forecast error?
The 24-hour Forecast average error difference is about 60 to 70 km, 48 h about 110 km, and 120 h can be up to 300 km or more. The longer the effect, the more reference should be given to the degree of disagreement in multi-organized Forecast.The greater the differences, the greater the uncertainty.
This site typhoon details page provides China, Japan, USA, Hong Kong, China, Taiwan, China and other multi-agency forecast path overlap contrast, intuitive view differences.