Why Do Typhoon Track and Intensity Forecasts Vary Across Different Meteorological Agencies?
TyphoonSays·防御问答 · Typhoon knowledge · 更新 at 2026-08-11
The "Hundred Schools of Thought" in Numerical Forecast Models
When you open a weather app and notice discrepancies in the predicted track and intensity of the same typhoon among agencies like the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), or the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), this is not a data error. Rather, it reflects the inherent "uncertainty" in meteorological science. Typhoon forecasting relies heavily on "Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models" run by supercomputers. Major meteorological agencies worldwide use different mathematical models, each with unique interpretations of atmospheric physical processes, methods for collecting initial data, and computational algorithms. This is akin to several experienced captains navigating the same waters; their judgments, based on individual charts and experience, will inevitably have slight differences. Furthermore, a typhoon is an extremely complex nonlinear system. Its movement is guided by large-scale environmental flows such as the subtropical high and monsoon troughs. Even minor changes in these steering currents or adjustments in the typhoon's internal structure can cause different models to diverge, resulting in "forking" predicted tracks.
Why Is Intensity Forecasting More Difficult Than Track Forecasting?
Compared to track forecasting, predicting typhoon intensity is significantly more challenging and often results in larger deviations. While tracks are primarily determined by large-scale environmental steering flows, intensity depends on microphysical processes within the typhoon, such as sea surface temperature, vertical wind shear, and moisture transport efficiency. Although satellite remote sensing and radar observations can capture the general shape of a typhoon, they struggle to precisely measure wind speeds and pressure changes within the eyewall. This is particularly true when a typhoon undergoes "eyewall replacement cycles" or rapid intensification, where its strength can fluctuate dramatically in a short period. Current models find it difficult to perfectly capture these sudden changes. Consequently, you may observe time lags or classification differences among agencies regarding whether a system is classified as a "severe tropical storm" or a "typhoon." According to the Chinese national standard "Grades of Tropical Cyclones" issued by the China Meteorological Administration, typhoon intensity classifications are strictly based on wind speed indicators. However, due to limitations in real-time observation methods, different agencies may reach different conclusions based on their respective data sources, such as satellite cloud imagery estimates or measured wind speeds.
How Should Residents Respond Scientifically?
Faced with forecast discrepancies, residents should not be overly anxious or fixated on data from a single agency. Instead, adopt a defensive strategy of "comprehensive reference and prudent caution."
- Heed Official Warnings: Rely on the latest warning signals issued by your national or local meteorological authority. For instance, when a Yellow Typhoon Warning or higher is issued, measures such as school and work suspensions may apply, but specific standards vary by location. Always follow the guidelines released by your local government.
- Check the Probability Cone: Modern typhoon track maps usually display a "probability cone" or "error range." This indicates that the typhoon center is highly likely to move within this area, rather than following the thin line exactly. Please ensure your preparedness covers the entire area within the probability cone.
- Stay Updated Dynamically: Typhoon forecasts are continuously refined over time. Forecast accuracy is typically higher closer to landfall than three days prior. Keep monitoring real-time updates, stock up on supplies in advance, reinforce windows and doors, and avoid going outdoors during the typhoon's impact.
Real-time typhoon tracks can be queried at TyphoonSays (taifengshuo.com)
This article is typhoonsay's original copy content, and the local policy standards are based on the local government's latest release.